By Jagoda Sekular
Ethiopian Enmity - Part 1
The prestigious Nobel Peace Prize prize sits in a glass vitrine at the Ethiopian Ministry of Peace, having been awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2019 for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. Fast-forward to late 2020, and Ethiopia, which is built on a ethno-federalist structure and divided into 10 administrative regions, has found itself on the brink of civil war with Prime Minister Abiy at the helm.
Tigray and TPLF’s trajectory
In early November, Prime Minister Abiy accused the governing party of the northern Tigray region in Ethiopia, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of attacking the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). Abiy claimed the TPLF sought to destabilize the federal government. In response to TPLF’s alleged attack, the federal administration unleashed a military campaign and full communications blackout on Tigray. The region is home to an estimated 6 million people, 600,000 of whom are dependent on food aid.
Prime Minister Abiy’s antagonistic relationship with TPLF is not incidental. Before the Prime Minister came into power in 2018, the TPLF reigned for 27 years after helping to topple Ethiopia’s Marxist dictatorship in 1991. The party dominated Ethiopia's military and political life. Last year, the ruling coalition led by the TPLF was dissolved, and most of the constituent parties were merged into a single party under the leadership of Abiy. The TPLF refused to join. The party, which has battled widespread corruption and fraud allegations, has worked to undermine Prime Minister’s Abiy’s reform agenda and argues that the Prime Minister’s mandate to rule expired after COVID-19 prompted the postponement of elections in August. The matter has been further compounded by TPLF’s defiant decision to hold its own elections in Tigray in September, which the federal government considered illegitimate. The escalating tensions between Abiy and the TPLF finally culminated in the accusation of a TPLF attack on the ENDF and the subsequent military retaliation.
As the ENDF approached Tigray with the aim of capturing the capital city of Mekelle, the federal government’s public outreach referred to the operation as an internal matter and a “rule of law enforcement operation”. The government systematically rejected international mediation efforts, citing territorial sovereignty, and called on the international community to adhere to the principle of non-intervention in internal affairs.
The fall of Mekelle
Though TPLF fighters are thought to number about 250,000, they were unable to defend their territory against the ENDF. Mekelle, a city with half a million inhabitants, fell within a week. In a public announcement, the ENDF claimed that the army had taken control of Mekelle without causing any damage to the city’s infrastructure or incurring any civilian casualties. ENDF’s announcement echoed the Prime Minister’s messaging that the operations had been completed and their focus will be on rebuilding, providing humanitarian assistance, and apprehending TPLF leadership figures.
Though the capture of Mekelle bolsters the position of the Prime Minister, the war is not over. The TPLF has rejected the Prime Minister’s victory proclamation. Rather than fight for its stronghold, the TPLF appears to have withdrawn. The party has a history of armed resistance and it is likely that lengthy guerrilla warfare will occur as its fighters are familiar with exploiting its mountainous terrain and borders with Sudan and Eritrea. Furthermore, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael has been actively reaching out to international media outlets and recently claimed that his forces shot down an ENDF plane and regained control of the Tigrayan town of Axum.
The Mai-Kadra massacre
The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has blamed a TPLF-linked militia for the massacre of 600 civilians from the neighbouring Amhara region in the town of Mai-Kadra in Tigray, a few days after the ENDF attack on Mekelle. According to the Commission, the militia stabbed, bludgeoned and burned to death non-Tigrayan residents of the town. The TPLF has denied this accusation, and cites it as propaganda promulgated by the federal government. With communications being gradually restored, damning testimonies from refugees and survivors have emerged of atrocities being committed by both sides.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed alarm over further violations of international humanitarian law and called on all sides to give "clear and unambiguous orders to their forces" to spare civilians. Though the communications blackout and limited humanitarian access mean the UN has been unable to directly monitor the situation, the organization has taken note of the reports of arbitrary arrests and detentions, killings, and discrimination and stigmatisation of ethnic Tigrays.
Humanitarian access and the human cost
It is believed that thousands have been killed and nearly 1 million people have been displaced. Refugee camps in Tigray that are home to nearly 100,000 Eritrean refugees have been directly in the line of fire. In early December, the UN announced that it signed a deal with the federal government to allow unimpeded humanitarian access for areas under federal control. Though Prime Minister Abiy’s administration initially promised a “humanitarian corridor” managed by the federal government, several international and multilateral organizations have voiced concerns that access for international aid workers remains constrained. The UN remains concerned about over 100 unaccounted aid workers in Tigray and, disturbingly, it recently emerged that several humanitarian workers on the ground have been killed.
The government has clarified that it stands ready to support the return of all Ethiopians that have fled and that humanitarian assistance will be further reinforced with the opening of a humanitarian access route managed by the Ministry of Peace. The Ministry, which recently admitted ENDF troops shot at and detained UN staff trying to visit a camp for Eritrean refugees in Tigray, is the very same one where the Nobel Peace Prize sits.
Ethiopian Enmity - Part 2
When awarding the Nobel Peace Prize prize to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Norwegian Nobel Committee acknowledged that “peace does not arise from the actions of one party alone” and elaborated that when the Prime Minister “reached out his hand, the President of Eritrea grasped it.” The peace agreement ended a nearly 20-year military stalemate with Eritrea following their 1998-2000 border war. Since coming into power in April 2019, the 44-year-old Prime Minister has been compared to Nelson Mandela as a pioneering leader whose door is never closed.
The regionalization of the conflict in the Horn of Africa
Fears that the conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia may destabilise the already fragile Horn of Africa region are not alarmist. The conflict, which commenced in early November between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has spilled over into Sudan and involved a number of regional actors.
Reclusive Eritrea, which has a population of 4 million, regards the TPLF as an enemy due to a historical border dispute and rivalries between Eritrea’s ruling party and the Tigrayan leadership. The TPLF regarded the Ethio-Eritrea rapprochement and peace agreement as Prime Minister Abiy pandering to a long-time foe, forsaking Tigray. The party deeply resents Prime Minister Abiy’s close friendship with the Eritrean President and has blamed Eritrea for offering Ethiopia covert military support during the recent military operation. Though Ethiopia and Eritrea have rejected this accusation, the TPLF has directed missile strikes toward the Eritrean capital of Asmara.
In addition to Eritrea, Sudan, which is itself in the middle of a fragile political transition, has so far received over 50,000 refugees. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees recently called for international support for Sudan and appealed for USD 147 million over the next six months for UNHCR and the humanitarian community in Sudan to manage the crisis. Earlier this month, the UN announced that its agencies are planning for the possible arrival of 200,000 refugees in Sudan fleeing violence in Ethiopia over a six-month period. Sudan currently already hosts 1 million refugees outside of the conflict in Tigray and new inflows are placing pressures on existing refugee services in the country.
Ethiopia is also a major contributor to the African Union peacekeeping force fighting Al-Shabaab in Somalia and to the UN peacekeeping operations in Sudan. Though it currently seems that Ethiopian troops will not be withdrawn from these critical peacekeeping operations in the Horn of Africa, the federal government has disclosed that it has disarmed several hundred soldiers of Tigrayan ethnicity from these operations due to concerns about their loyalty. A continuation of this purging and a full withdrawal of troops from the operations would create a security vacuum and severely jeopardize the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Rejection of international mediation efforts
Regional pressures have been exacerbated by the federal government’s systematic rejection of international mediation efforts. The government, emphasizing sovereignty, has called on the international community to adhere to the principle of non-intervention in internal affairs. The government’s posturing and the fact that Ethiopia hosts the African Union (AU), which it took a lead in creating and has substantial leverage over, have made regional and international mediation efforts cumbersome. The matter was further convoluted by Ethiopia holding the chairmanship of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AUPSC), the standing organ of the AU for the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts, in November, the very month the conflict in Tigray commenced.
In late November, it appeared that there was some traction when the AU appointed three high-level envoys to help resolve the conflict. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the appointment, calling it an "initiative for peace” and underlining the UN’s support for efforts towards ensuring a peaceful, stable and prosperous Ethiopia. However, in a turn of events shortly before the envoys arrived, Prime Minister Abiy ordered what he called the "final phase” of the “rule of law enforcement operation” in Tigray. Though the Prime Minister received the envoys, a communiqué revealed that the envoys were instructed that the federal government would continue its military operation. Moreover, the envoys were directed not to travel to Tigray to meet with TPLF leadership, which the Prime Minister has dismissed as a “criminal clique”.
The UN Security Council appears to also remain divided on the matter and has struggled to take concerted action and make a decisive pronouncement. The dynamics between the Security Council Member States have played a role and reportedly South Africa, one of three non-permanent African nations on the Security Council and current Chair of the AU, recently requested a discussion on Ethiopia be postponed citing allowing more time for regional efforts that are being undertaken.
The way forward
Despite the Prime Minister’s jubilant declaration of victory, the war is not over. The modalities of the interim caretaker administration set to govern Tigray and whether or not it will be embraced and accepted by the Tigrayan people remains unclear. The Prime Minister will now have to prove that the federal government will adhere to international normative standards if and when it apprehends the TLPF leadership. The TPLF’s capacity to galvanize its supporters should also not be overlooked.
Throughout the military operation, the Prime Minister rejected all international mediation efforts and external interference. However, it seems likely that the PM held regular consultations with the President of Eritrea, whose totalitarian regime has been internationally criticized for its disregard for human rights. Though the Norwegian Nobel Committee may have failed to administer a litmus test to Prime Minister Abiy to determine his suitability, the Committee was right about the President of Eritrea grasping the hand of the Prime Minister, as the bond between the two truly seems stronger than ever.
Opponents of Prime Minister Abiy have argued that the Machiavellianism exhibited by his regime damages the legitimacy of his rise to power, which was predicated on dismantling authoritarian rule, introducing progressive reforms and opening up the political sphere. With major opposition parties announcing that they will boycott the 2021 elections due their supporters and members, including prominent and vocal opposition figures, being imprisoned following a crackdown, the possibility of the inclusive and credible elections being held in Ethiopia next year appear weak. Now that the military operation has ceased, the international community awaits to see if the leader who has rejected external mediation offers will open his door up once again.
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