By Helen Clapp
On 13 June 2021, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ousted by a diverse coalition of rivals after 12 years in power. The new coalition is made up of an unwieldy group of eight parties spanning the political spectrum from far-left to far-right, and including an Islamist Arab party for the first time in Israel’s history. Following four elections in two years, after which neither Netanyahu nor his rivals were able to form a government, Yair Lapid’s success in forming the governing coalition is both a titanic feat and a massive relief for Israel. However, given what commentator Yair Rosenberg has described as the new coalition’s “Frankensteinian” nature, the stability of the coalition and what it will be able to accomplish are both unclear. Although the end of a democratic deadlock represents an important step in Israeli politics, the future remains uncertain.
Given the vastly differing ideological positions of the members of the coalition government, it seems unlikely that they will make significant progress on contentious political issues. Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing Yamina political alliance and Israel’s new Prime Minister, is an avowed ultranationalist who supports Jewish settlements and the annexation of the West Bank. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Lapid leads the centrist Yesh Atid party, whose supporters are mostly secular-leaning, middle class Israeli Jews. Although it has just five seats in the Knesset, the Ra’am party (also known as the United Arab List), led by Mansour Abbas, turned out to be the kingmaker. In an historic breakthrough for Arab Israelis, Abbas joined Lapid’s coalition, allowing Lapid to form a government. In exchange, Lapid and Bennett agreed to double the amount of funding for Arab sectors to 35 billion shekels ($10.75 billion) over the next five years. Ra’am participation in the governing coalition is an unprecedented opportunity for the Arab Israeli community to influence policy. Although Ra’am’s partnership adds to the diversity of political views and may therefore contribute to gridlock, the party’s presence may also serve as a check on the coalition. According to Professor Sammy Smooha, Ra’am creates a new governing dynamic in which the needs of the Arab minority must be taken into account. Furthermore, Ra’am has the power to check any potential radical steps like annexation of the West Bank because the coalition relies on its support to survive. However, the presence of Ra’am, Yesh Atid, and Yamina, as well as the other five parties in the coalition (Blue and White, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, and Meretz) creates a coalition so politically diverse it may be hard for it to accomplish meaningful change.
Mohammed Shtayyeh, the Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority, has decried the new government, calling it just as bad as Netanyahu’s government. Palestinians have strong reason for skepticism. The coalition is unlikely to make headway on a just solution to the conflict with the Palestinians due to its inability to agree on little other than a dislike of Netanyahu. Despite its desire to steer clear of contentious political issues, dealing with the conflict may be unavoidable. Already, the new government allowed for a right-wing Israeli nationalist march through Jerusalem’s Old City, igniting clashes between the marchers and Palestinian protestors, rocket fire from Hamas, and retaliatory airstrikes from Israel.
Palestinian concerns about their future must not be downplayed. However, commentators who raise alarms about Bennett’s right-wing stances may be overestimating the extent of his power in the coalition. Although Lapid gave Bennett the first turn as Prime Minister, a post he will hold for the next two years if the coalition survives, Yamina only has seven Knesset seats. Lapid is the real power broker behind the coalition, as Yesh Atid has 17 seats. The coalition is likely to moderate Bennett’s more extreme impulses, and Bennett himself has an interest in the coalition’s survival. Furthermore, after years of Netanyahu’s provocations, including his infamous 2015 speech to a joint session of Congress, the new government is eager to reset its relationship with the United States. This gives President Joe Biden a chance to push for change in Israeli policy, including for a just solution to the conflict with the Palestinians.
The future of the new governing coalition is nebulous at best. Its ideologically and politically diverse array of members mean it will be difficult for the coalition to achieve meaningful change in Israel’s domestic politics and foreign relations. In addition, Netanyahu is still a force to be reckoned with as the leader of the opposition. However, the coalition opens a new path to progress and a chance to shift away from the corruption of the Netanyahu years. The participation of Ra’am is a historical first, giving Israeli Arabs unprecedented influence in government. The coalition seeks to build a more constructive relationship with the United States, with the Iran nuclear deal at the top of the agenda for both countries. Finally, the desire to keep Netanyahu out of power is a strong motivation for the coalition members to cooperate and deliver on their promises. Whether Israel is able to chart a path forward or plunges back into gridlock depends on the humility, cooperation, and pragmatism of a few key decision-makers.
Helen Clapp is an MSc International Relations student at the LSE writing about the Middle East and the United States. She studied international relations and Arabic at Amherst College. She is particularly interested in American foreign policy in the Middle East and human rights issues.
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