In May 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron boldly proposed a new platform of European cooperation that would enhance coordination between the European Union (EU) and nations as yet outside the bloc, including EU hopefuls such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The result was the European Political Community (EPC), a platform for political coordination that aims to foster dialogue and cooperation in order to address issues of common interest. 

The Community was established in late 2022 following the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, and held its very first meeting in Prague, Czech Republic in October of the same year. EPC Summits are scheduled on a rotating basis, implying that hosting countries alternate between EU and non-EU member countries. The second summit of the EPC was hosted by Moldova at Mimi Castle in Bulboaca on 1st June 2023, and is the first hosted by a non-EU state. The summit built upon the foundations of the initiatory EPC conference in Prague and focused on three key issues: collaborative peace and security efforts, energy resilience and climate action, as well as European connectivity.

The latest ‘European Club’?

Writing for the Centre for European Policy Studies, Dr. Ilke Toygur notes that the initiative has yet to cement its institutional identity. Although it may presently be characterised as a “loose coordination platform” it could eventually develop into a novel organisation promoting “policy harmonisation in specific fields”. Currently, the EPC widens the scope of European collaboration by convening both official (EU) members and other European states to enhance continental security, stability, and prosperity. Notably, it also creates a forum for meaningful  exchange with important non-EU security actors, particularly the United Kingdom. 

Despite ostensible public support from the capitals of Western Europe, some analysts question whether the EPC merely duplicates existing formats of European cooperation despite its influence beyond the official bounds of the EU. However, research conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests that the EPC does indeed have the capacity to eventually contribute to concrete policy proposals. At this stage, summits are crucial to the development of short and medium term strategy, and establish policy areas to be prioritised by participating states against the contemporary backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

A Moldovan Moment

The decision to host the EPC summit in Moldova is an important one, both from the perspective of EU strategy and the Moldovan state itself, for whom the implications of the war in Ukraine have been manifold. In terms of its strategic and political implications, the decision to host the EPC’s second ever Summit in Moldova is likely intended to signify the EU’s influence over and commitment to Europe’s eastern frontier, particularly as the nation borders the conflict-stricken Ukraine; currently the flashpoint in Euro-Russian relations. European Council President Charles Michel was keen to emphasise the significance of the Summit, stating “we are 45 countries represented here in Chișinău – it is a powerful symbol”. Indeed, this would likely be one of unity across the European continent in a diplomatic system from which Russia and its partners have been excluded. 

For Moldova, the Summit and its role as host bring an abundance of opportunities, legitimising its EU candidacy while also re-affirming the European Union’s commitment to assisting the small nation with domestic crises associated with the fallout of the Ukrainian conflict. Moldovan President Maia Sandu was eager to acknowledge the unique value of the gathering, labelling the EPC as “an exceptional platform that provides small and large countries, both within and outside the EU, with an equal voice during discussions”. Moreover, it placed the small nation in a position of international importance, with its role as host allowing President Sandu to influence the agenda and steer discussions on specific issues. For instance, areas of challenge such as energy security, financial aid, Moldovan military capacity, and the logistics of large-scale refugee influx into the nation were among the topics addressed at the Summit. 

Turmoil on Europe’s Eastern Frontier

Since October 2022 Moldova has been mired in an energy crisis, possibly the most severe since its independence from the Soviet Union. The crisis ensued when Gazprom reduced energy exports to Moldova by 30% in a move intended to pressure the pro-EU Moldovan government. The effects were immediate, as the resultant energy shortage compelled Transnistrian authorities to reduce the power delivery capacity of the Cuciurgan Power Plant, by an astronomical 73%. By November 2022, a 19-page draft document presented to Western European leadership described an approximate 200% increment in electricity prices paired with 34% inflation, conditions that compelled the average Moldovan citizen to expend an astonishing 75% of their disposable income on energy utilities alone. The cost to Moldova amounted to $1 billion, a sum accounting for 8% of its total economy.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) attributes the adversity in part to Moldova’s domestic energy structures. Over the last two years, gas prices in the nation have increased significantly on account of developments in regional energy markets in a post-pandemic economy, as the purchasing gas price increased from 265 USD/1000 m³ in 2021 to 919 US/1000 m³ in May 2022. Furthermore, Moldova’s lack of domestic energy sources renders it entirely dependent on imports of fossil fuels and electricity. Since its independence in 1992, the nation has relied largely on power generated from Russian gas, producing a mere 10% of its electricity requirements domestically while relying on Ukraine for 20% of its power. The remainder is sourced from the Cuciurgan Power Plant in Transnistria, Moldova’s largest power station in the nation’s breakaway region. 

The aforementioned difficulties were compounded by conflict conditions in Ukraine. On account of proximity and import dependency, Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure have also been detrimental to Moldovan power dispensation, resulting in large-scale blackouts across the country. Meanwhile, an influx of refugees, an overall decrease in remittances, as well as tactical Russian pressure on pro-EU elements in Moldovan politics continue to pose serious challenges to the nation. Overall, the unforeseen and extreme price increases in the energy sector have precipitated a domino effect cost-of-living crisis with rising prices in all areas, also increasing pressure on public finances. 

The EU Agenda

In a prelude to the EPC Summit, EU President Ursula von der Leyen declared at a joint press conference with President Sandu that “Moldova is this week the political heart of Europe” and “embodies Europe’s core values”. As for the nature of the association, von der Leyen lauded Sandu’s leadership by citing Moldova’s ‘solidarity’ towards Ukrainian refugees, ‘resilience’ to so-called Russian ‘blackmail’, and its display of ‘unity’ in “linking” its “destiny to the European Union”. The EU President also accused Russia of attempting to “destabilise Moldova with hybrid actions”, referring to concurrent economic and security threats. 

Since the beginning of the crisis, the EU has provided a sum over €1 billion in the form of economic aid to Moldova, including €300 million of marco-financial assistance for 2023. However, the Summit led to pledges of additional support with the “Economic and Investment Plan for Moldova”, mobilising up to €1.6 billion as a direct investment into the Moldovan economy. Therefore, the decision to organise the EPC Summit in Moldova reflects a deepening commitment to the EU’s eastern frontier, and builds on the May 2023 deployment of the ‘EU Partnership Mission in the Republic of Moldova’ (EUPM Moldova) under the ‘Common Security and Defence Policy’ (CSDP). A significant resource for the nations’ officials, this civilian mission is intended to enhance Moldova’s crisis management structures and its resilience to ‘hybrid threats’ by providing advice and assistance at strategic level. 

In retrospect, the Summit is likely to be viewed by analysts as an exhibit of Moldova’s pro-European foreign policy in its bid for EU membership. The selection of Moldova as host for the EPC Summit paired with renewed financial and strategic support initiatives see EU doubling-down on its commitment to thwarting instability in Eastern Europe, which the European Council deems a “direct threat to the stability and security of the external borders of the EU”. For the European Political Community, the June 2023 convention has set an agenda of cooperation with Eastern European partners on the Ukrainian question, one that may be revisited at the next European Political Community meetings scheduled to take place in Spain and the United Kingdom.