Editor’s note: This is the second instalment of a two-part series on the increasingly regionalized conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. To read part one, click here.

When awarding the Nobel Peace Prize prize to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Norwegian Nobel Committee acknowledged that “peace does not arise from the actions of one party alone” and elaborated that when the Prime Minister “reached out his hand, the President of Eritrea grasped it.” The peace agreement ended a nearly 20-year military stalemate with Eritrea following their 1998-2000 border war. Since coming into power in April 2019, the 44-year-old Prime Minister has been compared to Nelson Mandela as a pioneering leader whose door is never closed.

The regionalization of the conflict in the Horn of Africa

Fears that the conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia may destabilise the already fragile Horn of Africa region are not alarmist. The conflict, which commenced in early November between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has spilled over into Sudan and involved a number of regional actors.

Reclusive Eritrea, which has a population of 4 million, regards the TPLF as an enemy due to a historical border dispute and rivalries between Eritrea’s ruling party and the Tigrayan leadership. The TPLF regarded the Ethio-Eritrea rapprochement and peace agreement as Prime Minister Abiy pandering to a long-time foe, forsaking Tigray. The party deeply resents Prime Minister Abiy’s close friendship with the Eritrean President and has blamed Eritrea for offering Ethiopia covert military support during the recent military operation. Though Ethiopia and Eritrea have rejected this accusation, the TPLF has directed missile strikes toward the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 

In addition to Eritrea, Sudan, which is itself in the middle of a fragile political transition, has so far received over 50,000 refugees. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees recently called for international support for Sudan and appealed for USD 147 million over the next six months for UNHCR and the humanitarian community in Sudan to manage the crisis. Earlier this month, the UN announced that its agencies are planning for the possible arrival of 200,000 refugees in Sudan fleeing violence in Ethiopia over a six-month period. Sudan currently already hosts 1 million refugees outside of the conflict in Tigray and new inflows are placing pressures on existing refugee services in the country.

Ethiopia is also a major contributor to the African Union peacekeeping force fighting Al-Shabaab in Somalia and to the UN peacekeeping operations in Sudan. Though it currently seems that Ethiopian troops will not be withdrawn from these critical peacekeeping operations in the Horn of Africa, the federal government has disclosed that it has disarmed several hundred soldiers of Tigrayan ethnicity from these operations due to concerns about their loyalty. A continuation of this purging and a full withdrawal of troops from the operations would create a security vacuum and severely jeopardize the stability of the Horn of Africa.

Rejection of international mediation efforts

Regional pressures have been exacerbated by the federal government’s systematic rejection of international mediation efforts. The government, emphasizing sovereignty, has called on the international community to adhere to the principle of non-intervention in internal affairs. The government’s posturing and the fact that Ethiopia hosts the African Union (AU), which it took a lead in creating and has substantial leverage over, have made regional and international mediation efforts cumbersome. The matter was further convoluted by Ethiopia holding the chairmanship of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AUPSC), the standing organ of the AU for the prevention, management and resolution of conflicts, in November, the very month the conflict in Tigray commenced. 

In late November, it appeared that there was some traction when the AU appointed three high-level envoys to help resolve the conflict. UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the appointment, calling it an “initiative for peace” and underlining the UN’s support for efforts towards ensuring a peaceful, stable and prosperous Ethiopia. However, in a turn of events shortly before the envoys arrived, Prime Minister Abiy ordered what he called the “final phase” of the “rule of law enforcement operation” in Tigray. Though the Prime Minister received the envoys, a communiqué revealed that the envoys were instructed that the federal government would continue its military operation. Moreover, the envoys were directed not to travel to Tigray to meet with TPLF leadership, which the Prime Minister has dismissed as a “criminal clique”. 

The UN Security Council appears to also remain divided on the matter and has struggled to take concerted action and make a decisive pronouncement. The dynamics between the Security Council Member States have played a role and reportedly South Africa, one of three non-permanent African nations on the Security Council and current Chair of the AU, recently requested a discussion on Ethiopia be postponed citing allowing more time for regional efforts that are being undertaken.

The way forward

Despite the Prime Minister’s jubilant declaration of victory, the war is not over. The modalities of the interim caretaker administration set to govern Tigray and whether or not it will be embraced and accepted by the Tigrayan people remains unclear. The Prime Minister will now have to prove that the federal government will adhere to international normative standards if and when it apprehends the TLPF leadership. The TPLF’s capacity to galvanize its supporters should also not be overlooked.

Throughout the military operation, the Prime Minister rejected all international mediation efforts and external interference. However, it seems likely that the PM held regular consultations with the President of Eritrea, whose totalitarian regime has been internationally criticized for its disregard for human rights. Though the Norwegian Nobel Committee may have failed to administer a litmus test to Prime Minister Abiy to determine his suitability, the Committee was right about the President of Eritrea grasping the hand of the Prime Minister, as the bond between the two truly seems stronger than ever.

Opponents of Prime Minister Abiy have argued that the Machiavellianism exhibited by his regime damages the legitimacy of his rise to power, which was predicated on dismantling authoritarian rule, introducing progressive reforms and opening up the political sphere. With major opposition parties announcing that they will boycott the 2021 elections due their supporters and members, including prominent and vocal opposition figures, being imprisoned following a crackdown, the possibility of the inclusive and credible elections being held in Ethiopia next year appear weak. Now that the military operation has ceased, the international community awaits to see if the leader who has rejected external mediation offers will open his door up once again.