Nursultan Nazarbayev took everyone off guard when he announced his resignation in an address to the Kazakh nation on public television last week. Two weeks earlier, the president had reshuffled the government in response to increasing social unrest. The now ex-president had at 78 ruled Kazakhstan – a country the size of Western Europe with a population of 18 million – for almost three decades, making him the longest ruling leader in the former USSR and the only one that has remained in power since before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Nursultan Nazarbayev became president of the Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan in 1989 after Gorbachev appointed Gennady Kolbin, an ethnically Russian silobik (soldier/spy turned politician) who had no prior relation to the country or its politics. After days of revolt and unrest in Kazakhstan, a young Nursultan Nazarbayev was appointed president, a post he occupied until last week. In the 30 years of his reign he won elections by a landslide on five occasions, the last one in April 2015. He holds the title of Yelbasy which literally translates as ‘Leader of the Nation’.

A 21st century Atatürk?

Nazarbayev’s followers often credit him with creating the Kazakhstan that we see today. In comparison to its Central Asian neighbours, Kazakhstan has made significant progress in the economic sphere: while the other ‘stans’ are plagued with widespread poverty, economic decline and instability, Kazakhstan has risen to become what the World Bank classifies as an ‘upper middle income country’.

However, Kazakhstan has been very lucky. The 172 oil fields spread through the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan have put it on the list of top 15 oil-exporting countries. Wealth from export of natural resources has been the main source of income that Nazarbayev spent on, amongst other luxurious projects, building the ostentatious capital Astana with its sky-scrapers and eye-catching buildings totally from scratch.

Nazarbayev’s resignation meant that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev – who until now held the role of Senate Speaker – is now interim president until the next elections, scheduled for April 2020. Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva has been promoted to Senate Speaker, following Astana’s characteristic style of unanimous vote. Therefore, were the president to fall ill or step down she would automatically become president of Kazakhstan.

Would a female president be accepted by the people of Kazakhstan? It is unlikely that Dariga’s appointment as Senate Speaker is a sign of Nazarbayev’s feminist inclinations. Unfortunately for the Yelbasy, he does not have any sons to whom to pass on his legacy, which would have made power transition a lot simpler in patriarchal Kazakhstan. However, time will tell. Dariga’s time as Senate Speaker will be a good trial period to test the waters on how Kazakh society reacts to the idea of a woman as their head of state.

For a brief second, there seemed to be hope for democratic reform and a turn towards a freer Kazakhstan. Optimism was latent in young activists’ posts on social media following Nazarbayev’s resignation. It looked like Kazakhstan would not have to “fake it till you make it” for much longer: the finish line suddenly seemed close to touch. Sadly, it did not last long: a day later President Tokayev decided to make his first action as president to propose the name change of the capital Astana (which also means ‘capital’ in Kazakh) to Nur-Sultan, in honour of the first president of the independent republic.

A move like this is the cherry on the cake of personality cult in Kazakhstan. Nur-Sultan city – already available in Google Maps – is the latest in a long list of buildings and roads named after the ex-president, which include Nursultan Nazarbayev International Airport, Nazarbayev University, Nazarbayev Avenue and a number of memorials and statues.

The renaming of Astana has polarized Kazakh society. Following the decision to rename the capital, a clash between supporters and protesters in front of the city hall ended with 20 people being arrested. In addition to this, a petition with over 45,000 signatures has been created to object the renaming of Astana. Besides protesting the cult of personality that the new name brings with it, the appeal argues that the change would cost the Kazakh government millions of dollars that should instead be invested in the many sectors that are struggling financially. A second argument states that the question should be posed to the entirety of the Kazakh nation in a referendum.

Why now?

There are multiple reasons why Nazarbayev would choose to resign when he did instead of waiting for the next elections to step down.

First, Power transitions in former USSR countries have in the past been difficult, some involving turmoil and coups. Nazarbayev wants to avoid transition chaos like the one that took place after Uzbekistan’s president Islam Karimov passed away in 2016. In recent addresses to the nation he has mentioned several times the need to transfer power to a new generation of politicians, among whom undoubtedly is his daughter Dariga.

Second, he wants to remain in full control of power despite resigning from his role of president. There is little doubt that Tokayev is little more than a puppet of the Yelbasy. With a whole year left until the next elections, Nazarbayev can use this period away from the direct spotlight to guarantee a smooth dynastic succession. He will choose to either groom his eldest daughter for the role of president or to introduce a new hand-picked heir into the picture. Samat Abish, Nazarbayev’s nephew and current deputy head of National Security Committee (KNB) and son-in-law Timur Kulibayev are names often mentioned for the role of president.

Finally, this rare voluntary transfer gives him a sense of being a democratic leader. He still maintains the lifelong post of leader of the Nur-Otan party, membership of the Constitutional Council and chairmanship of the Security Council, whose powers were expanded a year ago. Thus, there is little doubt that Nazarbayev is not retiring from politics and will continue to take key decisions in internal and external affairs of Kazakhstan.

What does this mean for the broader region?

Central Asian countries are some of the most authoritarian states in the world, classified as “Not Free” by Freedom House, an independent watchdog, on a yearly basis. If Nazarbayev’s power transition plans are successful, this move has the potential to start a trend in monocratic states. “To do a Nazarbayev” could potentially become the improved version of the Putin-Medvedev power alternation: a way to evidently stay in power without actually being in the top post.

Indeed, multiple prominent Russia and Eurasia watchers have looked at the possible implications that Nazarbayev’s resignation might have for its northern neighbour. Putin is said to not plan on running for the 2024 election, he will be 72 by then. It is hard, however, to picture the Russian leader stepping down, retiring to a lovely mansion in the Caribbean and leaving the Kremlin behind. Creating a Kazakh-like powerful Security Council would enable Putin to keep a firm hold on power from the backstage, authority that he could use to influence the sexier side of politics: foreign policy and security. Mark Galeotti, honorary professor at UCL’s School of Slavonic and Eastern European Studies, argues that although people in Russia don’t want to get rid of Putin, they do want to get him out of the Kremlin’s presidential office.

Conclusion

The next 12 months until the 2020 elections will be an interesting time to watch Kazakh politics. If Tokayev were to resign or die before his term is complete, Dariga Nazarbayeva as Speaker of the Senate would automatically take on as interim president. However, the possibility of her not being accepted by Kazakh society is still present. In addition to this, it will be intriguing to see what Nazarbayev’s role in politics will be as chairman of the Security Council.

One thing is clear: whatever happens in Nur-Sultan will be key to the future developments not only of Kazakhstan but of Central Asia and the broader Post-Soviet region as a whole.