In 2018 Mexico broke a new record in its murder rate; 28,816 cases of homicide were filed. Yet, crime is not the only reason for the country’s political turmoil and stagnant economic growth. A large informal sector, the curse and blessing of its geographical proximity to the United States, and discrimination against women and ethnic minorities all cast a shadow over the country’s early economic successes. Alfonso Cuarón’s movie Roma that celebrated its premier at the Venice International Film Festival in August 2018 draws a beautifully painted picture of what lies at the heart of the country’s economic and political fight. Cuarón’s contemplation of Mexico’s enduring struggles is more relevant today than ever: Roma comes at a time when the landslide presidential victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in September 2018 and his promise of a “Fourth Transformation” show a clear sign – that Mexicans want to see a change.

10 Oscar nominations and the award for “Best Foreign Language Film” have thrust Roma into the international spotlight. Set in the 1970s, Cuarón’s Roma captures the memory of the filmmaker’s childhood in Mexico City and tells his story through the eyes of Cleo, a live-in domestic maid who works for a middle-class family in Mexico City’s district called “Roma”. As a live-in domestic worker, Cleo forms part of the informal economy that today makes up nearly 25 percent of Mexico’s GDP. In other words, more than 30 million people in Latin America’s second biggest economy are currently exempt from accessing social benefits and insurance while working for low wages and avoiding tax duties.

Under former Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto, the plans for implementing a universal social security system that would increase incentives to enter the formal economy were ultimately abandoned. Yet, reforms to lower informality continue to be paramount to tackle the country’s weak economic performance and already-low tax base: 3 to 4 percent of GDP is lost every year because the large shadow economy fails to provide taxable income. Newly elected AMLO, who was sworn in last December for his six year term, has introduced plans for youth apprenticeships that aim to capture young people within the formal sector. However, critics claim that these plans are unlikely to drive the wholesale changes that are needed to catapult 60 percent of Mexico’s working population into the formal economy.

As the family drama in Roma unfolds, it becomes apparent that Cleo’s daily reality is irrevocably entangled with political and domestic violence. The movie draws on historical political upheavals such as the Corpus Christi Massacre of 1971, which left two dozen protesting students dead. Although Roma captures Mexico at the time of the “Dirty War”, a particularly violent period in the country’s history, crime remains a prevalent issue. The disappearance of 43 Mexican students in 2014 who were allegedly abducted by police officers has become a symbol of the country’s widespread insecurity. In the more recent run-up to the 2018 presidential elections, a wave of political violence rocked Mexico that left 113 presidential candidates and 8 journalists dead since the election process kicked off in September 2017.

Despite his pledge to get violence under control, the presidency of Peña Nieto marked Mexico’s most violent years since the beginning of modern records. Drawing on his predecessor’s failures, AMLO’s strategy of peaceful reconciliation formed a major part of his 2018 electoral campaign. Yet, his plans to curb insecurity involve the deployment of a 60,000-strong national guard force that was approved by Congress in late February 2019. Opponents of his plan call for the strengthening of police forces and law-enforcement agencies. They fear that AMLO’s militarized strategy will intensify human rights abuses: since the militarization of policing was introduced in 2006 under president Felipe Calderón, 200,000 people have been killed and several more have disappeared.

Unspoken divisions of race and class reinforce Mexico’s struggles of informality and violence. As a woman of indigenous descent who is working for a white middle-class family, Cleo is the epitome of the ethnic split that divides Mexico’s society. However, Roma simultaneously underlines the bond that Cleo shares with the mother of the family, Sofía, who struggles to cope economically without the assistance of her husband. Women remain heavily underrepresented in Mexico’s formal economy and the percentage of female workers in the informal economy continues to outrank that of men. Also struggling to find formal sector employment is Mexico’s indigenous population. Land shortages and the government’s policy to keep artificially low prices of corn have forced the indigenous population to migrate to larger cities where they encounter difficulties in finding formal sector jobs.

During his presidency, Peña Nieto took significant steps to improve gender equality by increasing universal pre-school enrollment, introducing gender quotas at elections, and tackling teenage pregnancy. Yet, AMLO will face the challenge of continued gender-based violence and under-representation of women in Mexico’s high-level positions. The 2018 election also bears implications for the indigenous as AMLO has pledged to put their needs above all others. In his electoral campaign, the President-elect championed the idea of agricultural self-sufficiency, which would provide an opportunity for the indigenous to improve their living standards and contribute to economic growth. However, critics are afraid that Mexico’s resources of unused land and water are insufficient to translate AMLO’s plan into reality.

Lastly, Roma would not be fully representative of Mexico’s current struggles without its touching upon the relations between Mexico and the US. Fermín, Cleo’s fleeting romance and the father of her unborn child, forms part of a government paramilitary group that is allegedly trained by the US military to crush Mexican student protestors. US military interventions in Latin America have a long tradition and caused resentment among a large part of the population. Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency to build a wall along Mexico’s border has poured oil on the waters of this already tense relationship. To complicate things further, a large part of Mexico’s population depends on Uncle Sam to reap the fruits of bilateral trade through NAFTA. Yet, the newly negotiated USMCA that will replace NAFTA once it has been ratified in all three signatory states might make Mexico even more dependent on its top trading partner.   

Under Peña Nieto, political and economic relations with the US were strained by differences over issues of trade and immigration. AMLO will need to ensure a positive bilateral relationship with the US in order to secure the passing of the USMCA in the US Congress and solve the immigration dilemma at Mexico’s Northern border. In his July 2018 meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, AMLO reiterated his commitment to work on bilateral solutions and improve domestic living conditions so as to further lower North-bound emigration, which has already decreased from 1.6m illegal immigrants in 2000 to 400,000 in 2017. Yet, Trump has shown little interest in supporting Mexico’s economic development and has instead proposed to reduce aid to Central America by 30 percent. AMLO’s plans to lessen security cooperation with the US in the fight against drug cartels could cause further collisions with Trump.

Despite drawing attention to a wide range of issues that continue to shape Mexico’s economic and political fight, Roma seems to provide room for hope. The movie capitalizes on the resilience of Mexico’s people, in particular that of women and the indigenous population. Nevertheless, adequate policies will be needed to translate this hope into reality. In seeking to fight informality, violence, inequality, and improving relations with the United States – problems that have plagued Mexico since Cuarón’s childhood – AMLO faces an uphill battle. Whether he will rise up to the task remains to be seen.