“We will be back.”

 Those were the words now President-elect Joe Biden used at the 2019 Munich Security Conference to reassure an audience of European leaders frustrated with President Donald Trump, who has viewed European countries more as free riders ripping off the United States than as key allies.

One year and a tumultuous presidential election later, Europe can finally breathe a sigh of relief. With Biden’s victory widely declared on November 7^th, a renewal of the U.S.-Europe partnership—a bedrock of the liberal international order since World War II—appears possible once more.

A longtime Atlanticist with close ties to many of Europe’s most important leaders, Biden has vowed to reaffirm America’s commitment to traditional alliances, multilateralism, and democratic values. He has also pledged to rejoin the World Health Organisation, reengage diplomatically on the Iran nuclear issue, and reaffirm the US commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause. All this is music to the years of European policymakers eager to move past the unpredictability of the Trump era.

Though we can expect the Biden administration to work more closely with its European allies, US-Europe relations will be far from smooth sailing in the years to come. Rather, opportunities for cooperation will also come with challenges. Whether or not the United States and Europe will work together to effectively address these issues and create a more equal partnership will be up to them.

Here are some areas where we could expect greater transatlantic cooperation, as well as potential sticking points, under the Biden administration:

China

The main foreign policy challenge facing the United States when Biden takes office on January 20^th will be managing relations with China. With a bipartisan consensus in Washington around the idea of “strategic competition” with Beijing, President Biden will be expected to address issues like 5G and technology decoupling, curtailing Chinese investments, and focusing on strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Policy on China will create both challenges and opportunities for transatlantic cooperation. Unlike Trump, Biden would see the European Union (EU) as a key partner in shaping a common approach toward China. The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc and working closely with the United States would give the region leverage in shaping the rules of global digital commerce. In particular, the United States and the EU could collaborate on technology and trade, given the concerns of Washington and European capitals about Beijing’s behavior.

There will, of course, be limits to what such an agenda can achieve. Several European countries have avoided picking sides in the emerging U.S.-China rivalry. Many states, such as Germany, rely on trade with China and view their dealings with Beijing mainly through an economic lens. They have therefore avoided taking a tough line on the Chinese government’s human rights abuses and continue to include Huawei in their 5G networks. Reticence to damage economic relationships will likely complicate any effort to develop a common China policy.

European Burden Sharing

A Biden administration will likely expect Europe to take on more responsibility as a geopolitical partner. With US economic and military resources being diverted towards the Indo-Pacific, Washington will not be able to devote as much time to crises on Europe’s borders. The United States will therefore ask Europe and NATO to shoulder more of the burden in areas like the Mediterranean and the Middle East where the US footprint is fading. This also means NATO members will be expected to honor their 2014 pledge to move toward spending 2 percent of GDP on defense.

Trade

Trade is another area that could see stronger transatlantic cooperation. It’s also full of pitfalls.

President Trump declared Europe a “foe” on trade and engaged in bitter trade disputes with EU allies. Biden will certainly look to move beyond such hostility. But that doesn’t mean trade between the United States and Europe will get any easier. For example, there are no easy fixes when it comes to issues like Europe’s call for a digital tax on tech giants and the long-running dispute over subsidies for Airbus and Boeing. 

With that said, the Biden administration could look to renew talks on a transatlantic free trade agreement. While previous attempts under President Obama fell short, many European leaders seem interested in giving it another shot, particularly at a time when their economies are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Between April and June, the eurozone economy shrank by 12.1 percent, the biggest drop on record.  

Climate Change

Climate change will almost certainly be an area of strong cooperation between the United States and Europe. Biden has promised to return the United States to the Paris Climate Accords on “day one” of his presidency. Doing so will be a key signal of the United States’ renewed commitment to fighting climate change.

Russia

Biden will likely seek stronger cooperation with Europe in response to Russia’s resurgence. The President-elect criticised President Trump for not taking the Russian threat seriously and for cosying up to Vladimir Putin. A Biden administration would seek an alternative Russia policy centered on a strengthened NATO and a robust defense of democracy.

Accordingly, the United States would seek to reduce European dependence on Russian gas as it works toward a clean-energy transition. It would also work closely with the EU to strengthen Ukrainian independence by upholding the recently renewed sanctions regime against the Kremlin.

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Biden’s victory has revived hopes for a transatlantic revival, but rebuilding and renewing the US-Europe partnership will not be easy. There will be opportunities for cooperation and hurdles to overcome. How leaders on both sides of the Atlantic respond to them will determine the strength or weakness of the transatlantic relationship going forward.